What the 538 forecast would say if the 2024 election were Harris versus Trump.

After fallout from his debate performance, the president's future in the White House has been questioned.

With the election months away, 538 breaks down the possibilities and future of President Biden in the White House.

Helen Thompson and David Runciman join 538 to discuss the country's political identity and what to expect in the UK election.

Political and economic experts discuss a post-Brexit economy ahead of election day.

The UK could be on the verge of electing a center-left government, a groundbreaking decision given the country's conservative history in politics.

It's one of many similarities with the U.S. election.

Since SCOTUS handed down its decisions, the focus appears to have shifted. 538 discusses.

Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.

It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538

Trump looks to be gaining, but by how much remains to be seen.

Less than the current front-runners might hope.

We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.

New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.

Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.

538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.

The president's age and perceived frailty became a clear liability on stage.

We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.

Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.

Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.

President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.

Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.

The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.

The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.

Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.

Legal experts are worried about Trump's ongoing attacks on the courts.

Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.

Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?

He’s short on polls and ballot access but is pursuing legal action.

The pandemic upended the factors that used to predict consumer sentiment.

House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good could lose renomination.

Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.

Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.

Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.

In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.

For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.

In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.

On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.