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Latest 538 Headlines

July 04

Would Kamala Harris be a stronger candidate than Biden?

What the 538 forecast would say if the 2024 election were Harris versus Trump.
July 04
Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks on reproductive rights at Ritchie Coliseum on the campus of the University of Maryland, June 24, 2024. Former President Donald Trump gives the keynote address at Turning Point Action's "The People's Convention", June 15, 2024, in Detroit.
July 04

Will President Biden stay in the race?

After fallout from his debate performance, the president's future in the White House has been questioned.
July 04
Will President Biden stay in the race?
July 04

Democrats express concern over Biden’s future

With the election months away, 538 breaks down the possibilities and future of President Biden in the White House.
July 04
Many Democrats concerned over Biden’s future in the White House.
July 04

Has the United Kingdom established a political identity?

Helen Thompson and David Runciman join 538 to discuss the country's political identity and what to expect in the UK election.
July 04
Has the United Kingdom established a political identity?
July 04

The Brexit movement's impact on the present day

Political and economic experts discuss a post-Brexit economy ahead of election day.
July 04
 The Brexit movement and its impact in the present day
July 04

Making sense of a historic British election

The UK could be on the verge of electing a center-left government, a groundbreaking decision given the country's conservative history in politics.
July 04
Brexit politics and the dynamics around it
July 03

Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France

It's one of many similarities with the U.S. election.
July 03
The U.S., U.K. and France are all holding major elections in 2024.
July 02

Will SCOTUS' blockbuster rulings push Biden criticism out of the headlines?

Since SCOTUS handed down its decisions, the focus appears to have shifted. 538 discusses.
July 02
Will SCOTUS' blockbuster rulings push Biden criticism out of the headlines?
July 02

538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence

Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.
July 02
538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence
July 02

SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?

It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538
July 02
Win McNamee/Getty Images
July 02

What the polls say after the first presidential debate

Trump looks to be gaining, but by how much remains to be seen.
July 02
Trump gained slightly in national polls in the days after the first presidential debate.
July 01

What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028

Less than the current front-runners might hope.
July 01
The three front-runners to be Trump’s VP are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sens. Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance.
June 28

Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
June 28
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election on June 27.
June 28

Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate

New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
June 28
VIDEO: Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
June 28

Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?

Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
June 28
VIDEO: Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
June 28

Who won the 1st presidential debate?

538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
June 28
VIDEO: Who won the 1st presidential debate?
June 27

Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS

The president's age and perceived frailty became a clear liability on stage.
June 27
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden during a presidential debate hosted by CNN, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta.
June 27

Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
June 27
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election on June 27.
June 26

Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president

Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
June 26
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
June 26

Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think

Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.
June 26
Joe Biden, 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, right, and President Donald Trump speak during the U.S. presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, Oct. 22, 2020.
June 25

What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate

President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25

All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday

Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 25
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 25

Upcoming debate is different than other debates

The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 25
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 25

How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?

The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 25
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 24

15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina

Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.
June 24
Rep. Jamaal Bowman speaks at a re-election rally at Maceachron Park on June 21, 2024 in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York.
June 24

Trump's trial showed the legal system works, but his rhetoric has left scars

Legal experts are worried about Trump's ongoing attacks on the courts.
June 24
Trump's pattern of challenging the justice system has concerned legal experts.
June 20

Do global election trends provide insight into the US election? 

Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
June 20
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
June 20

Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world? 

Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 20
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 20

Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?

Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20

Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate

He’s short on polls and ballot access but is pursuing legal action.
June 20
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to the media at a Cesar Chavez Day event at Union Station on March 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
June 18

It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.

The pandemic upended the factors that used to predict consumer sentiment.
June 18
High costs may partially explain Americans' dissatisfaction with the economy.
June 17

7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma

House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good could lose renomination.
June 17
VA-05 candidates Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire
June 14

A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about

Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.
June 14
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
June 13

Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast

Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
June 13
VIDEO: Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated?
June 13

Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast

Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
June 13
VIDEO: Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI
June 13

How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
June 13
VIDEO: How concerned are Americans with AI?
June 11

How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast

In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11
In this episode of the 538 podcasts, Elliot explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11

Should voters look at election forecast as codification?

For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
June 11
For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
June 11

Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
June 11
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
June 11

538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up

In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
June 11
In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
June 04

Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.
June 04
VIDEO: Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?
June 04

Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative

On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”
June 04
VIDEO: Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative
June 03

How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.
June 03
VIDEO: How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion

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