July 3, 2024 at 4:06 PM
Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France
How the United Kingdom and France elections work and who will win.
July 3, 2024 at 4:06 PM
July 3, 2024 at 3:14 AM
538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence
Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.
July 3, 2024 at 3:14 AM
July 3, 2024 at 12:15 AM
SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?
It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538
July 3, 2024 at 12:15 AM
July 2, 2024 at 7:07 PM
What the polls say after the first presidential debate
Trump looks to have gained at least some ground, but how much the polls end up moving remains to be seen.
July 2, 2024 at 7:07 PM
July 1, 2024 at 6:09 PM
What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028
Why Trump's vice presidential pick might not matter as much as you think.
July 1, 2024 at 6:09 PM
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM
Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
Poll results from after the first 2024 presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM
Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
June 28, 2024 at 7:52 PM
June 28, 2024 at 6:06 PM
Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
June 28, 2024 at 6:06 PM
June 28, 2024 at 5:31 PM
Who won the 1st presidential debate?
538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
June 28, 2024 at 5:31 PM
June 28, 2024 at 5:02 AM
Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
A new 538/Ipsos poll conducted before the debate shows where Biden and Trump stand.
June 28, 2024 at 5:02 AM
June 28, 2024 at 4:54 AM
Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS
From the earliest moments of the night, President Joe Biden's biggest political weakness -- his age and perceived frailty -- became a clear liability on the debate stage.
June 28, 2024 at 4:54 AM
June 26, 2024 at 9:36 PM
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
June 26, 2024 at 9:36 PM
June 26, 2024 at 6:58 PM
Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Will the June 27 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden matter in the polls?
June 26, 2024 at 6:58 PM
June 26, 2024 at 12:57 AM
All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 26, 2024 at 12:57 AM
June 26, 2024 at 12:38 AM
Upcoming debate is different than other debates
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 26, 2024 at 12:38 AM
June 25, 2024 at 9:17 PM
How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 25, 2024 at 9:17 PM
June 25, 2024 at 9:12 PM
What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25, 2024 at 9:12 PM
June 25, 2024 at 2:56 PM
15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in New York, Colorado and Utah.
June 25, 2024 at 2:56 PM
June 21, 2024 at 12:15 AM
Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world?
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 21, 2024 at 12:15 AM
June 20, 2024 at 11:57 PM
Do global election trends provide insight into the US election?
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
June 20, 2024 at 11:57 PM
June 20, 2024 at 10:11 PM
Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20, 2024 at 10:11 PM
June 20, 2024 at 6:37 PM
Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came up short of qualifying for the first general election debate.
June 20, 2024 at 6:37 PM
June 19, 2024 at 1:11 PM
It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.
Why Americans feel bad about the economy even though economic data is strong.
June 19, 2024 at 1:11 PM
June 18, 2024 at 6:40 PM
A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about
538's polling column examines Americans' opinion on access to the abortion medication mifepristone, the economy and threats to democracy, Pride month and polling itself.
June 18, 2024 at 6:40 PM
June 18, 2024 at 2:55 PM
7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma
Tuesday's elections include notable U.S. House primary races in Virginia and Oklahoma.
June 18, 2024 at 2:55 PM
June 13, 2024 at 3:01 PM
Biden, Trump virtually tied in 538 poll
Former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over President Joe Biden.
June 13, 2024 at 3:01 PM
June 12, 2024 at 6:46 PM
Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election
It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
June 12, 2024 at 6:46 PM
June 11, 2024 at 12:55 PM
Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast
Announcing 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model.
June 11, 2024 at 12:55 PM
1 month ago
Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls
What the polls say about 2024 abortion-rights ballot measures in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and South Dakota.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early
National polling conducted immediately after Trump's guilty verdict reflects a slight swing toward Biden.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November
Republicans continue to embrace election denialism by pushing efforts to ban noncitizens from voting (which is already illegal).
1 month ago
1 month ago
What to know about the UK’s July general election
With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
1 month ago
1 month ago
How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?
Will the outcome of Trump's hush money trial matter to voters in November?
1 month ago
1 month ago
Senate Democrats are polling well. That could help Biden.
Senate Democrats are polling better than President Joe Biden. What does that mean for 2024?
1 month ago
1 month ago
Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.
Nikki Haley has endorsed Donald Trump, but which Haley primary voters will break with the Republican Party in the 2024 general election?
1 month ago
1 month ago
It doesn’t matter which candidate you’d rather have a beer with
In the third episode of our mini-series "Campaign Throwback," we explore whether Americans really choose their presidents based on personal relatability.
1 month ago
1 month ago
6 elections to watch in Georgia, Oregon and Idaho
538 previews the May 21 primaries in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky.
1 month ago
2 months ago
Democracy is a top concern for many voters. We asked them why.
538 partnered with PerryUndem to conduct focus groups with undecided swing-state voters and delve deeper into how they're thinking about the state of our democracy.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Biden’s path to winning the Electoral College runs through the Midwest
Polls suggest Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be pivotal states for Biden's chances of winning the Electoral College.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Are 'soccer moms' actually swing voters?
In the second episode of our miniseries "Campaign Throwback," we get to the bottom of how suburban women became a political obsession.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Maryland's contentious Senate race
The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.
2 months ago
2 months ago
10 primaries to watch in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia
538 breaks down the key primaries in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Consolidating the Democratic base
538 Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich discusses what can be done to consolidate the Democratic vote behind President Joe Biden.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Biden still trails Trump in various polls
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls so little.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What are the odds Democrats will win the popular vote?
The 538 crew plays a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and puts their wisdom to the test.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What are the odds of a Trump win this November?
The betting markets place the likelihood of Trump winning the 2024 election at 47% — but does 538 agree?
2 months ago
2 months ago
Could we see a Biden-Trump debate?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of certain events this election season.
2 months ago
2 months ago
Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up
As a rural dog owner, I know Kristi Noem's story is far from normal.
2 months ago